The major news in pro wrestling this week is the announcement of All Elite Wrestling re-signing their TV deal with Warner Bros Discovery.
All of the press releases mention Dynamite and Collision without Rampage, which helps push the rumours we’ve heard that Rampage will be ending in 2025.
The persistent rumour has been that AEW waited for their exclusivity window with WBD to close so they could look outside WBD for a new TV deal. The target looks to be with Fox.
Fox, the former network of WWE Smackdown, decided against trying to bid for Smackdown and allowed it to leave the network. Smackdown is back on USA but still on the Friday timeslot instead of moving to their original Tuesday timeslot when they were last on USA.
Fox has delighted with press releases talking about their new ratings with college football without WWE Smackdown, to the point where WWE looks to have replied by giving early overnight numbers to the usual suspects. Neither side is really going to say it, but it seems pretty clear that Fox hasn’t been happy with the WWE deal. As discussed on the Trish and Sarah Wrestling Podcast, WWE has disappointed Fox in multiple ways in terms of broken promises, high expectations not met, and refusing to take suggestions like signing CM Punk. When WWE finally signed CM Punk they put him on Raw instead of Smackdown.
When Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch discussed why they were moving on from Smackdown, Murdoch discussed advertising wasn’t hitting a return of investment at a level they would accept. Essentially, for the money Fox was paying for Smackdown ($205 million over five years) they were not getting a return on that amount regardless of the key demo ratings.
What might confuse people on this is why would Fox be interested in AEW if that was their issue with WWE Smackdown? That’s why a lot of insiders were focused on the deal having to be FS1 instead of Fox. B.J. Bethel on SEScoops stated AEW is likely to be exclusive to WBD for cable programming as Dave Meltzer stated in Wrestling Observer Newsletter that AEW was discussing either Tuesday or Thursday with Fox. There was rumours of a Fox deal prior to September, but the rumours spread wild after former AEW Men’s World Champion Swerve Strickland discussed that AEW was getting Fox on the QUEENZFLIP YouTube Channel.
So how does AEW fit Fox?
First, look at the number AEW is rumoured to have signed with WBD. Early report was “above $150 million” with original rumours at $170 million. Dave Meltzer broke down on Wrestling Observer Radio it’s essentially an average of $185 million. That does include the PPV/streaming portion. Let’s say it’s $160 million per year just for the TV (four hours for Dynamite and Collision) which gives you $40 million per hour. This is just estimation.
Fox was paying back in 2019 for Smackdown at an amount of $102.5 million per hour. Fox would not have to pay that for AEW. They might even get it for less than what WBD is paying per hour since they can ask for more as a network. At half the price or even less than half the price of Smackdown, they can get a pro wrestling program that’s high in the 18-49 demo and know the expectations for the return of investment in advertising money.
The final Smackdown on Fox did one of their worst numbers on the way out, with 1.770 million viewers and a 0.45 18-49 rating according to Programming Insider. Even if competition was tough, that’s still paying $4 million for Smackdown per week. Let’s say AEW got a two hour show on Fox at ¼ of what Fox paid for Smackdown. That’s $1 million per week, $52 million per year. Would AEW have trouble doing ¼ of the last Smackdown rating? That would be 442,500 viewers and a 0.11 key demo. I think AEW could manage that. Even if they got their Dynamite ratings on Fox you’re looking at 700,000 viewers and a 0.23. Less than half of Smackdown’s last rating, but better than half of the key demo.
So Fox could essentially price the new AEW show at an amount where they know that getting essentially half of the Smackdown demo and less than half of the total viewers would be profitable for them in advertising. AEW is likely to accept that amount due to it being icing on the cake for them. The WBD deal makes them profitable. This makes AEW even stronger.
What could Shockwave be?
So let’s go with what we are rumoured to know. Shockwave will be on Fox not FS1. Shockwave rumoured to be Tuesday or Thursday according to Dave Meltzer of the Wrestling Observer.
On Tuesday it’s head to head with NXT. It’s also the day before Dynamite, which will definitely make it feel like the A show. Everything will run from Shockwave to Dynamite. That’s not a bad thing seeing as it’s the network show, but there will be AEW viewers who always treat Dynamite as the flagship show. Going head to head with NXT (both network shows) would make for some entertaining fights, with AEW with a clear advantage on the bigger network. It would however limit the potential success of the show.
On Thursday it would technically be up against TNA Impact but I’m sure they just move timeslot. Impact owns their own network so they can pick any day they want to be on, and they usually avoid going head to head with anyone. It also means ROH moves their day but ROH doesn’t matter as much as something like Shockwave. Thursday is also the weakest night for Fox, as everyone goes up against Amazon Prime’s Thursday Night Football. A show like Shockwave wouldn’t start up until after the fall programs have finished up, but Hell’s Kitchen at 8PM on Thursday only did 1.5 million viewers with a 0.26 18-49 in their premiere.
I lean towards Thursday being the night for Shockwave.
Now, will Shockwave be a one hour show or two? Two hours would be risky. It’s a lot more likely you get bumped around a lot as a two hour show. During MLB until 2028, they are going to get bumped to FS1 or another night. There would be other reasons to get bumped around a bit regardless if they go on Tuesday or Thursday. But a one hour show? You could probably keep that consistent to Thursday and just have to sometimes move the slot around MLB.
I personally think a one hour show would be ideal. Again, I’m a fan of Rampage, and a fan of utilizing a one hour wrestling show. You can cut out the fat, keep it to just the best possible matches, and run only the most necessary angles. Everything else is for Dynamite and Collision. You could treat Shockwave as the “Big Game Fight Night” show with 2-3 matches per week you just know will capture an audience. Dynamite and Collision can still be for the sickos. Shockwave will be for everyone else.
I know Fox expected a more sports based product from Smackdown and instead got The Fiend, and while it would be silly to trust AEW on a sports based product (with all of the craziness people had with those statements and how AEW still presented pro wrestling like pro wrestling has been instead of suddenly turning into Pancrase) I think you could find some comfortable common ground to make it just a lot more focused on being almost pay per view on network TV. Or dare I say it, like the original Saturday Night’s Main Event.
If Fox offers two hours I’m sure AEW takes it, but like I said, I hope this is a true replacement of Rampage. Even though you can never replace The Pagers.
How would AEW scheduling work?
I’ve heard it discussed you could do a Dynamite/Shockwave or Shockwave/Collision taping but I personally cannot see that happening. I don’t think WBD and Fox want their shows taped on the same day in the same arena. Especially if Fox has any form of unique requests to the broadcast.
My ideal scenario would be:
Wednesday: Dynamite taping with AEW Dark prior and post or Dynamite/Collision taping
Yes, the return of AEW Dark. Apparently the new contract with WBD allows AEW to do Dark again on YouTube, something they’ve wanted to do according to Sean Ross Sapp of Fightful. No more treating ROH like Dark. Proper AEW Dark during Dynamite tapings like they used to do.
Thursday: Shockwave taping with AEW Dark. Imagine getting an AEW taping again that doesn’t run over four hours. Something tight at two and a half hours maximum. Less chance for a tired crowd.
AEW Collision Residency: The Arlington residency for AEW Collision I have a feeling could be a regular thing for AEW to do. I think the regular setup will end up being Dynamite live with Collision taped after, but AEW will want to do the Residency like they did with Arlington as the regular spot for Collision. That allows them to tape either weekly in one spot at a low traveling cost or even do the taping in bunches. On nights AEW Collision is taping in residency, Dynamite could cut the taping length to three hours instead of four.
ROH Tapings: We have yet to hear anything official on ROH, whether it ends up on TruTV, or Max, or somewhere else entirely. I’ll discuss ROH more at a later date, but I think AEW and ROH need to be treated as two separate entities again. ROH should be a full developmental, similar to the early 2010s NXT under Dusty Rhodes, where growth and development are the key to the company instead of merely putting the indies out of business by taking their top guys.
Shock The World
With WWE and Fox having a less than amicable split and AEW now open to get a TV deal outside of WBD within limits (Fox and WBD were supposed to work together for the Venu Sports service, I’m sure if AEW was negotiating with CBS Paramount it would ruffle feathers) it makes sense that Fox could see AEW as a viable cheaper form of programming that they could make money on when they couldn’t with WWE. Lower expectations and lower cost for Fox is still significant money for AEW.
I don’t know if this ends up one hour or two, or what day it ultimately ends up on, though I do believe that Fox is happy with Friday being a football night now.
The WBD renewal with All Elite Wrestling is a good indication that a lot of the doom and gloom on declining numbers was nowhere near as bad as they acted about it. The television industry doesn’t see it as the negative they saw it. The TV industry understands that pretty much everyone except sports is hurting on network and cable television. Slides are to be expected.
Too many reporters and analysts saw WWE’s numbers rebound a little bit and decided they were in an industry boom while AEW’s numbers were sliding and saw that as being cold and concerning. In reality WWE simply slowed down their own sliding with a temporary increase in attendance while AEW has lost like everyone else numbers due to cord cutting but still stayed top five in their TV slot.
Despite being something I’ve ranted about for years, the rank of the TV show matters more than the raw number. It always has. And AEW Dynamite has stayed consistently top three on Wednesday for the past year. AEW Collision, often deemed a failure, has stayed consistently top five on Saturday. AEW Rampage, a show that likely won’t exist in 2025, has stayed Top 10 for the past two years. This is why WBD is renewing AEW. This is why Fox is interested. Not the total viewers. Not the year to year. The rank.
TV is slowly dying, but dying faster than people might realize. It’s good to be increasing instead of decreasing, of course it is, but what matters more than your year to year is how well you’re surviving the cord cutting. What also matters is preparing for a future off cable and network TV, which the new TV deal with WBD ensures with simulcast on Max. Fox doesn’t have a streaming service really like Max, they have Tubi which is still treated as separate from being a ladder from traditional TV to streaming. Because of this, network TV they can count on matters, and it’s very possible this deal is signed on Fox understanding AEW is reliable programming at a reliable price. That’s how they fit.
