(Disclaimer: I wrote this on Friday before going camping for the weekend. I don’t return until Sunday afternoon before the pay per view. If AEW President Tony Khan announces any matches between this time? I won’t be covering them. This is just for what has been announced from Friday morning. Sorry if anything is missing!)
To find all AEW Double or Nothing 2025 PPVPreview’s Click Here.
To find AEW Dynasty 2025 Predictions and Preview Click Here.
AEW Double or Nothing 2025 comes from the Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona. For hockey fans, the Arizona Coyotes played here from 2003 until 2022 when they moved into a college hockey arena that could barely support an NHL team before moving to Utah. You’ll probably have a chuckle at the AEW posters saying the show is from Phoenix, Arizona knowing how long it takes to get to Glendale from Phoenix. Some habits die hard.
Last month, all the talk was about pivoting. Would AEW pivot to Swerve Strickland and end the Death Riders angle? It didn’t happen. I didn’t think it would either as you can read in my AEW Dynasty 2025 Predictions. They gave too much time for Cope to get his rematch to really give Swerve Strickland a proper runway to make a true statement on pivoting to him.
What’s interesting is that not only was this the right decision, but I feel the Death Riders angle has improved greatly now in what feels like the home stretch. I said it in my preview for the Anarchy in the Arena match, but I do recall how Kenny Omega and The Elite were like as champions of AEW in 2021 and how much that whole angle started real rough, only picking up steam after Double or Nothing 2021 when the ridiculous three way match ended with a big shrug and they moved into Kenny Omega versus Hangman Adam Page. A lot of the talk prior to that was how Kenny Omega was a better Impact World Champion than AEW World Champion. This is now forgotten to time due to how good that second half of the run was.
Moxley didn’t have that good of a match with Swerve, but the follow up has been a feud with The Opps and Samoa Joe, which very much felt like the rebels finally striking against the empire. The Opps won the AEW Trios Championship with Jon Moxley eating the pin against Samoa Joe. This set up Beach Break, with a cage match between Joe and Moxley. This match ended up very good, with very minimal interference (Gabe Kidd sliding in a briefcase) affecting the result.
There’s a real desperation to Jon Moxley and the Death Riders now that adds to the excitement, and makes a match like Anarchy in the Arena not feel so much like a foregone conclusion. Moxley no longer has PAC, his soldiers in Wheeler Yuta and Claudio Castagnoli have taken multiple losses, and Marina Shafir is no longer untouchable now that Willow Nightingale has become her neutralizer.
Moxley hated the presence of the Young Bucks and Elite but now has to rely on them in this Anarchy in the Arena match. Gabe Kidd, who was last seen in All Elite Wrestling tag teaming with Roderick Strong and the Undisputed Kingdom, comes from New Japan Pro Wrestling as the loudest member of the Bullet Club War Dogs. For a War Dog and Mox to team up seems incomprehensible, and both AEW and NJPW fans have been left scratching their heads as to how this makes sense. But it makes sense in the sense that Moxley is absolutely desperate. He reached out to someone who could potentially turn on him at any moment, who doesn’t care about his crusade, who doesn’t care about AEW, and he’s doing it because he has run out of allies. Gabe Kidd injured Eddie Kingston, his best friend, and here he is bringing him to the fold of Death Riders. It’s not the smart, calculated, driven Jon Moxley anymore. It’s a man feeling the weight of the crown.
The two biggest matches on this show will set the stage for Y’All In Texas, deciding exactly who is going after the World Championships of AEW. On one side you got Mercedes Moné, TBS Champion, in the final of the Owen Hart Foundation tournament to go up against former AEW Women’s World Champion Jamie Hayter. On the other you have Hangman Adam Page, finalist of last years Owen Hart Foundation tournament, once again in the final and this time against Will Ospreay.
For most of this year and a chunk of last year, it felt like a show like this would be all about Darby Allin. Darby just completed climbing Mount Everest and is on his descent. He just didn’t make it in time to be ready for the Owen Hart Foundation tournament or Y’All In Texas. Maybe he makes it in time to ruin things for the Death Riders. Or maybe he waits his turn. Either way, the man who just planted the AEW flag on the peak of the greatest mountain on the planet is sure to be a focal point of the company regardless of the result of the match at Y’All In Texas.
Double or Nothing this year will be all about setting up Y’All In Texas, and for the most part the card makes sense and feels sensible. Mina Shirakawa getting a quick title shot is okay, even if the result feels guaranteed to go the other way. FTR feuding with Daniel Garcia and Nigel McGuinness is a good story, and a good follow through from FTR turning heel on Cope. I just wish there was something better going on with the AEW World Tag Team Championship, and wish there was something better for Maxwell Jacob Friedman and Kyle Fletcher. Really, AEW could have made this their own Survivor Series style pay per view and had multiple 6 and 8-wrestler tag matches throughout the card.
In years past, Double or Nothing and Forbidden Door kicked off the Nightmare Mode for AEW booking. This time the shows are better spaced out, with Double or Nothing in May, Y’All In Texas in July, Forbidden Door in August, and the recently announced All Out in Toronto for September. WrestleDream will likely stay in October, Full Gear in November, and Worlds End in December. At least four weeks between every major event once we hit Y’All In Texas.
There’s a good momentum in AEW right now, with strong World Champions and a better sense of alignment with a lot of wrestlers. We know who our heroes are finally. Time to see how they overcome the villains.
AEW Double or Nothing 2025
Stretcher Match
Mark Briscoe versus Ricochet
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This just feels like a good ol’ fashioned midcard feud with a gimmick match tossed in. I feel like doing the Stretcher match, as I said in the preview, is a tribute to Sabu who just passed away.
These matches can sometimes go sideways due to the nature of having to strap an opponent onto the stretcher. No different to a coffin/casket match or an ambulance match where you have to ensure the fans are excited in the struggle of getting out of the predicament.
I think Mark Briscoe is one of the smartest wrestlers alive when it comes to making something exciting or interesting so I am putting my faith in him and Ricochet knowing how to make those spots interesting. Hoping for a good match here.
I’m leaning towards Ricochet getting his win back and winning on pay per view. I don’t know where it’ll lead for him since both the International and Continental Championships will be taken up in the same match, and it appears after Collision that Adam Cole and his TNT Championship will finally be face to face with Kyle Fletcher.
If it was up to me? Ricochet and the Young Bucks would be facing The Opps at Y’All In Texas.
Winner: Ricochet
Tag Team Match
Daniel Garcia and Nigel McGuinness versus FTR
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Sometimes it’s just nice to have a regular feud built up properly.
I’ve really enjoyed the work of FTR in the past few weeks getting heel heat on Tony Schiavone, Nigel McGuinness, and Daniel Garcia. They are showing their true colours in AEW. No more leeching off the popularity of The Outrunners, no more crying about their families back home for sympathy. True colours FTR is the best FTR. And Stokely? Perfect addition.
I think this has been good use of Daniel Garcia who could have been lost in the shuffle after his TNT Championship run. It often happens in AEW that they forget the former champion and have nothing to do for them, so this is a good chance of pace.
I also hope this means we see Nigel McGuinness wrestle more.
I expect FTR to win and this helps build up their heel heat. They are the uncrowned AEW World Tag Team Champions in my eyes.
Winner: FTR
AEW Continental Championship
Speedball Mike Bailey versus Kazuchika Okada (c)
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There isn’t much to say on this since it’s just Speedball Mike Bailey getting the last crack at Kazuchika Okada before Y’All In Texas when Okada faces a different Canadian.
My hope is Okada is ready to put on his working boots for Bailey. I’m sure we get the usual comedy Okada brings but I’d also like to see Okada use this match as a reminder of what kind of demon he can be when he wants to be. He needs to be at the top of his ability against Kenny Omega, so best to show what that looks like against Speedball.
Okada wins, and I’m hoping it’s a good one.
Winner: Kazuchika Okada
AEW World Tag Team Championship
The Sons of Texas versus The Hurt Syndicate (c)
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Can both teams lose and have their belts vacated?
Winner: The Hurt Syndicate
AEW Women’s World Championship
Mina Shirakawa versus Timeless Toni Storm (c)
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Mina got her official ALL ELITE graphic which was great to see. AEW has been missing a Joshi presence on the show. Where’s Yuka Sakazaki? Why isn’t Maki Itoh in AEW anymore? I’m not sure, but it was great to see Toni Storm effectively prepare for this with her match against Miyu Yamashita.
This isn’t Mina’s first shot at Toni Storm as the two faced off at Forbidden Door last year but it will be the first without the presence of Mariah May. How that changes up Mina’s approach to Storm we will have to see, but this is a good way for her to remind AEW fans what she’s all about.
Storm has her eyes on who wins the Owen Hart Foundation Women’s Tournament final, so the result won’t be any surprise. Even so, I hope this is a great way for Mina Shirakawa to make her mark on the roster and show why WE WANT MINA.
Winner: Timeless Toni Storm
Anarchy in the Arena
Team Swerve versus Team Death Riders
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It’s nice to not be worrying about if the Death Riders match is going to suck or not.
Despite the Swerve Strickland match at Dynasty being a disappointment, the Death Riders angle coming out of Dynasty has actually been the strongest since autumn. Samoa Joe and The Opps have breathed new life into the angle due to the fact the usual Death Rider shenanigans doesn’t work. PAC getting hurt meant Jon Moxley has had to get a bit more desperate. Joe’s ability to withstand whatever he tossed at him and still get the Clutch on has made Mox more and more desperate.
At first, Moxley rejected the help from the Young Bucks, with no interest in them helping him at Dynasty take out Swerve Strickland. Now, he’s okay aligning with them to take out AEW. What other choice does he have?
Moxley also brought in Gabe Kidd from New Japan Pro Wrestling to help him beat Samoa Joe in the cage match at Beach Break. He can’t trust Kidd. Kidd hates AEW, and he hates The Elite, and he hates Moxley’s best friend Eddie Kingston even more than Claudio Castagnoli.
So now in Anarchy in the Arena, he has Swerve Strickland coming back at him. He has Kenny Omega coming at The Young Bucks. He has Willow Nightingale neutralizing Marina Shafir. And he has The Opps wearing their AEW Trios Championship against his boys Wheeler and Claudio. Jon Moxley’s back is being put up against a wall.
I do think they find their way out of this, but the price is going to be a lot for Jon. He’s going to watch AEW get more and more unified against him. He’s going to find The Elite have their own agenda. He’s going to find Gabe Kidd more trouble than he’s worth. And he’s going to feel the walls closing in. Death Riders may win, but it’ll be one of the last wins they get.
Winner: The Death Riders and Young Bucks
2025 Women’s Owen Hart Foundation Tournament Final
Mercedes Moné versus Jamie Hayter
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The last two matches will be so difficult for me to decide on.
There’s a lot of ways both can go. There’s the route of the biggest match possible. That’s Mercedes Moné winning. If Moné wins you got the TBS Champion versus Women’s World Champion. Can’t get bigger than that. What do you do with Hayter after? It’s a big question mark. But at least you booked the biggest match you can for Y’All In Texas.
Then you got the route of Jamie Hayter winning, possibly due to an interference by Athena. This allows you to go with Athena versus Mercedes Moné for the TBS Championship and Jamie Hayter faces Timeless Toni Storm for the AEW Women’s World Championship at Y’All In Texas. You get two women’s matches out of it.
I don’t know if the women will get the main event, and if they do? You go with Moné versus Storm. If they don’t? You should go with quantity, and quantity means giving us two big matches for the women. With that thought, I go with Jamie Hayter winning. It’ll be Moné’s first big loss, and if Athena helps cost her? She will have unfinished business to take care of.
Winner: Jamie Hayter
2025 Men’s Owen Hart Foundation Tournament Final
Hangman Adam Page versus Will Ospreay
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Will Ospreay laid it out in the promo with Hangman Adam Page on Dynamite.
Hangman has beaten Moxley and Ospreay has not. Ospreay is hoping if he beats Hangman that means he will be ready for Moxley. But Ospreay said that if Hangman does beat him that Ospreay will have his back in the war against the Death Riders.
I can see the vision. I can see Hangman Adam Page winning, but they still have to deal with Death Riders and The Elite. I can see Blood and Guts, where Nicholas and Matt Jackson team with Claudio Castagnoli, Jon Moxley, and Kazuchika Okada to go up against the top five men of AEW: Hangman Adam Page, Swerve Strickland, Will Ospreay, Kenny Omega, and Darby Allin.
I can see Ospreay, after saying he’d be there for friends, having to be there for Swerve Strickland to face the Young Bucks at Y’All In Texas. Okada against Omega. Darby against Claudio. And Hangman Adam Page set to save AEW against the Death Riders and Jon Moxley.
(I originally wrote in Eddie Kingston instead of Darby and Gabe Kidd instead of Claudio. There’s rumours Eddie Kingston may be returning at Double or Nothing. Let’s hope!)
But Ospreay also laid out how he thought he wanted it a little bit more than Page. How he wanted to walk into Forbidden Door in London, England as AEW Men’s World Championship. The problem is, as Page identified, it’s somewhere Hangman has been before. He’s also felt what it means to fail in this situation. To have the shot pulled from your hands. To have the moment taken away from you. He knows what that can do to a man.
Hangman made it clear. Ospreay wants this. Hangman needs this.
I know I wrote it will be another Bummer Hangman Summer. I know I’ve added to all of the doubt that I’ve felt AEW to ever get behind Hangman Adam Page the way they should. I know I’ve said that even if he beats Ospreay, even if he beats Moxley, he’s just going to be a placeholder for when they want the Darby Allin story to properly continue.
But when I saw Hangman pour his heart and soul about why he needed this, why he needed this two year story to mean something, why he needed his kids to look up to him and his wife to see the man she fell in love with, and he needed to prove Ospreay wrong that it was too little too late? I believed he could win.
And when Ospreay responded not in kind, but immediately in scorn, to shame Hangman for the actions of the past, leading to Hangman to grab the beer Ospreay originally handed him and take a drink, even though Ospreay tried to get the crowd back after being a real asshole, I felt like things were in place the way I’ve wanted to see it finally.
Maybe AEW is seeing this the way I’ve wanted them to see it. Hangman Page is going to be the guy to win it all, and Will Ospreay, the Prince who thought he was promised? This will be the first steps into him realizing he just doesn’t have what it takes yet to be AEW Men’s World Champion. Showing up and trying your best isn’t enough. You have to become more. You have to become the evil you’ve rejected.
“I’ve lost without having to pull out the referee to get an advantage. I haven’t gone to the boss and whined whenever I don’t get my own way. If I have lost? I have lost leaving everything I have in this ring. And if I lost? I won their respect. And more importantly? I won their trust.”
Page screamed back asking if that would be enough for Jon Moxley. More importantly, will that be enough for Hangman Adam Page?
I’ve said before that my ideal AEW is one where Hangman Adam Page is at the top as one of the babyface heroes, and Will Ospreay is at the top as one of the heel villains. This match could be the beginning of that.
Or maybe everything I laid out in the first paragraph of Will Ospreay backing up Swerve just ends up Hangman’s spot, as has been speculated for several months now.
Ospreay said he would be the friend to watch Hangman’s back (something he was supposed to be to Darby but told him to wait until after the Continental Classic and then the Death Riders killed Darby on stairs on the last Rampage before he could) if Hangman won. He said he hoped the same, and then called him out in the desert for a shootout.
Watching that segment it feels like Will Ospreay got to say what he wanted to say to get the sway of the crowd. It felt like AEW showing their hand again, intentionally, to tell you that wasn’t going to be the result.
But I know how Hangman summers go.
Sigh
Winner: Draw
Just kidding. Gotta make a real decision.
Even if he doesn’t win, I have to applaud AEW for convincing me once again that it could happen. For everything I think I’m seeing, none of it might mean a thing. It’s all about Will Ospreay. They are showing their hand because in their hand is Ospreay. There is no deception. They told us Hangman is going to fail because he will fail, and they hope we put the blame on heels like the Young Bucks instead of on the booking.
Or maybe, just maybe, because Darby Allin took too long to climb a mountain? They go with the one guy they know, no matter what happens, no matter what is thrown his way? He eventually survives. If anyone is going to save All Elite Wrestling from a dreaded tyrant? It’s Cowboy Shit. Same as it once was. Same as it is. Same as it ever will be.
Winner: Hangman Adam Page
